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Are the Chinese lying about the corona virus?

Debate Information

At the time of writing, the official report for the corona virus spread states that there are a total of 7,711 cases in Wuhan, and there have been 170 deaths.

Wuhan is a city of  over 11 million people, (1.27 times bigger than New York City) They claim their hospitals to be completely full due to the outbreak. New York City has 62 Hospitals with a total of 26,451 beds and around a 65% usage average. If we assume similar numbers in Wuhan, and to be generous, they should have around 30,000 bed capacity, and at 70% usage that would leave about 9,000 beds empty. Keep in mind, that not everyone will be hospitalized with the virus, only those who are in critical condition such as the sick and elderly. This suggests that the actual number of cases are much higher.

Those numbers are a little to close for comfort. On top of this, they are rapidly constructing new hospitals that should add about 10,000 more beds. This strongly suggests that either the current numbers are much higher or they expect to need this type of capacity.

It is easy to lie with words, difficult to lie with documents, and impractical to lie with actions.
At some point in the distant past, the universe went through a phase of cosmic inflation,
Stars formed, planets coalesced, and on at least one of them life took root.
Through a long process of evolution this life 
developed into the human race.
Humans conquered fire, built complex societies and advanced technology .

All of that so we can argue about nothing.



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  • MayCaesarMayCaesar 5971 Pts   -  
    Hospitals in Wuhan do not just hold corona patients; corona patients form a very small minority of all patients there. Chinese hospitals in general are known to be quite full at most times (seems to be the case in most strongly nationalised healthcare systems), and it is not surprising that a small outbreak affecting thousands people is creating some problems.
  • Happy_KillbotHappy_Killbot 5557 Pts   -  
    @MayCaesar That doesn't explain why they are adding 10,000 more beds though. Even if Wuhan was operating near it's hospitals carrying capacity before the outbreak, they are probably lying about the actual number of infections.

    This combined with that x factor, the incredibly long incubation period of the virus (some estimates suggest it is about 10 days) during which time it is the most infectious and their are no symptoms, suggests that the Chinese may be covering up some of the data.

    This would be bad if it is true, because it probably means that a significant portion of the world is already infected, but we won't know for over a week.
    At some point in the distant past, the universe went through a phase of cosmic inflation,
    Stars formed, planets coalesced, and on at least one of them life took root.
    Through a long process of evolution this life 
    developed into the human race.
    Humans conquered fire, built complex societies and advanced technology .

    All of that so we can argue about nothing.
  • piloteerpiloteer 1577 Pts   -   edited January 2020
    The healthcare sector in China hasn't kept pace with their economic growth, so we can't assume they have as many hospital beds readily available as there are for New Yorkers. So it's probably not surprising that the hospitals there are filled to capacity. This is the third strain of coronavirus that has been seen since the beginning of the century (since 2000). It is the least deadly outbreak of coronavirus we've seen so far, and far less deadly than some yearly rounds of the flu. It doesn't even touch ebola where there were as many as 80 or 90 percent of infected people dying at one point.

     The reason this one is concerning is because of how quickly it is spreading. It just so happened to start spreading at the busiest holiday travel season in China. The Chinese government is actually being very forthcoming with their figures and their approach because it gave China a real bad global image when they kept the outbreak of SARS quiet. The CDC and the WHO believe that a catastrophic outbreak of something like ebola will eventually happen on a global scale, and it's not a question of if it will, but a question of when it will. But this is not that time. I'll bet the WHO is making a big deal about this one to prepare the world for a much more scary outbreak that could come in the near future, but that is just conjecture.      
  • MayCaesarMayCaesar 5971 Pts   -  
    @Happy_Killbot

    Everything seems to add up nicely. Assuming the hospitals were close to being full to begin with and that the number of cases is approaching 10,000, with no telling how many more cases there will be, it makes sense to add approximately 10-15,000 more beds preventively.

    It is not at all something to worry about. Every minute approximately 100 people worldwide die to natural causes. This virus is not statistically significant at all, and I personally would not even think about postponing my trip to Wuhan had I one planned. You are probably more likely to die in a car accident tomorrow just driving to work, than you are to get contaminated by the virus if you go to Wuhan and hug and kiss contaminated people repeatedly.
  • Happy_KillbotHappy_Killbot 5557 Pts   -  
    @piloteer I did a little research on this, and it looks like this Corona virus has an estimated basic reproduction number of between 3-5, which is the average number of people you would expect the virus to spread to per infected person. This is much higher than Ebola which has 1.5-2.5, and slightly higher than the influenza virus at 2-3, but no where close to small pox or the measles, which has estimates as high as 18.

    Why is this important? It's because even if the virus is not as deadly as say, Ebola it can actually be much more dangerous by infecting a greater number of people. Even if only 5% of cases result in death, then we are still talking about potentially tens of thousands of deaths if it is not contained quickly. I think it might be a little too early to determine just how deadly it is, because many of the people infected now may not have had time for the virus to run it's course.
    At some point in the distant past, the universe went through a phase of cosmic inflation,
    Stars formed, planets coalesced, and on at least one of them life took root.
    Through a long process of evolution this life 
    developed into the human race.
    Humans conquered fire, built complex societies and advanced technology .

    All of that so we can argue about nothing.
  • Happy_KillbotHappy_Killbot 5557 Pts   -  
    @MayCaesar Maybe the real threat is watching how fast the Chinese build stuff.

    You can't get into Wuhan right now, the entire area is completely quarantined being guarded by the PLA. They have shut off all the roads by piling dirt and rocks on to them. We might not see the full effects of the virus until about midway through February, and it doesn't matter because it is already in the US Australia and Europe.
    At some point in the distant past, the universe went through a phase of cosmic inflation,
    Stars formed, planets coalesced, and on at least one of them life took root.
    Through a long process of evolution this life 
    developed into the human race.
    Humans conquered fire, built complex societies and advanced technology .

    All of that so we can argue about nothing.
  • MayCaesarMayCaesar 5971 Pts   -  
    @Happy_Killbot

    Well, China is a heavily centralised totalitarian state. If they want it, they can concentrate their efforts and address any problem in a quick and exaggerated way. They do not have to be concerned with the rights of their citizens', with inconveniences to businesses, etc.; they can just issue a directive at the top and send it down the chain of command.

    They pull off stunts like this all the time. I can say many negative things about their state, but they surely have mastered a hierarchical organisation of the society.
  • Happy_KillbotHappy_Killbot 5557 Pts   -  
    @MayCaesar They have failed in this regard however, because the virus has still escaped China.
    At some point in the distant past, the universe went through a phase of cosmic inflation,
    Stars formed, planets coalesced, and on at least one of them life took root.
    Through a long process of evolution this life 
    developed into the human race.
    Humans conquered fire, built complex societies and advanced technology .

    All of that so we can argue about nothing.
  • piloteerpiloteer 1577 Pts   -   edited January 2020
    @Happy_Killbot

    Many of the people infected now are already recovering. The reason this caronavirus isn't as deadly as the measles is because the measles can spread through the air. Right now they are looking at a 2% death rate for this caronavirus. That's still lower than SARS (which is a strain of the caronavirus) which had a 15 to 18 percent death rate. Ebola had a 90% death rate. A 2% death rate puts this in the category of a bad flu season, not "I am legend" kind of $hit.   
  • piloteerpiloteer 1577 Pts   -  
    Huh. All of the sudden my throat feels itchy. Now that I think of it, I feel a tad bit feverish. Heh, that's funny, I now have a sudden urge to eat human flesh.    
  • Happy_KillbotHappy_Killbot 5557 Pts   -  
    @piloteer That 2% figure can be expected to rise though, because the first deaths were on the 25 of January, just 4 days ago. I think it is too early to see the full scale of the virus at this time, and determine exactly how bad or dangerous it is. It is also possible that it could evolve to become more deadly.
    At some point in the distant past, the universe went through a phase of cosmic inflation,
    Stars formed, planets coalesced, and on at least one of them life took root.
    Through a long process of evolution this life 
    developed into the human race.
    Humans conquered fire, built complex societies and advanced technology .

    All of that so we can argue about nothing.
  • MayCaesarMayCaesar 5971 Pts   -   edited January 2020
    @Happy_Killbot

    Well, they still only have control over what happens to Chinese citizens on the Chinese territory. They cannot do much about those who have left overseas, and they cannot detain foreigners planning to return overseas without a major international backlash. Considering these limitations, they have done outstandingly well.

    I will just add that people should stop ringing the doomsday bell every time something like this happens. There have been dozens pandemics over the last 20 years, and every time people get scared and thousands media articles get posted, only to see nothing of substance happen in the end.
    Dee
  • Happy_KillbotHappy_Killbot 5557 Pts   -  
    @MayCaesar Isn't it reasonable to think that because people sound the doomsday bell that nothing happens? If nobody made a big deal out of this type of stuff then it would inevitably be far worse.
    At some point in the distant past, the universe went through a phase of cosmic inflation,
    Stars formed, planets coalesced, and on at least one of them life took root.
    Through a long process of evolution this life 
    developed into the human race.
    Humans conquered fire, built complex societies and advanced technology .

    All of that so we can argue about nothing.
  • MayCaesarMayCaesar 5971 Pts   -  
    @Happy_Killbot

    A proportional response is reasonable, but an overreaction is not. Imagine if every time you cut your finger while doing cooking, you thought you were going to bleed to death... Would this be a healthy reaction, and would it improve the quality of your life? Now imagine that you overreact like that to many different things. Your life will just be filled with stress and anxiety, for no good reason, impairing you in many different ways. Similarly, overreacting to every outbreak and other similar things fills societies with stress and anxiety and impairs them in many ways.
    Dee
  • DeeDee 5395 Pts   -  
    @MayCaesar

    ***** Similarly, overreacting to every outbreak and other similar things fills societies with stress and anxiety and impairs them in many ways. 

    You’re right , just a minute ago on our national news the health minister said that most people easily fight the virus off without treatment of any kind in a few days , the media reports it seems have totally exaggerated things 
  • DeeDee 5395 Pts   -  
    @MayCaesar

    I just read the seriousness of the “virus “  was spread by one guy on Twitter and it went “viral” it’s the latest conspiracy theory type hoax and all totally exaggerated  
  • ZeusAres42ZeusAres42 Emerald Premium Member 2673 Pts   -   edited January 2020

    @MayCaesar That doesn't explain why they are adding 10,000 more beds though. Even if Wuhan was operating near it's hospitals carrying capacity before the outbreak, they are probably lying about the actual number of infections.

    This combined with that x factor, the incredibly long incubation period of the virus (some estimates suggest it is about 10 days) during which time it is the most infectious and their are no symptoms, suggests that the Chinese may be covering up some of the data.

    This would be bad if it is true, because it probably means that a significant portion of the world is already infected, but we won't know for over a week.

    By the same token, this also doesn't mean that the number is higher because of this or that there is some conspiracy going on; that the chinese are lying etc. Correlation is not causation.



  • piloteerpiloteer 1577 Pts   -  
    @Happy_Killbot

    Nobody in the medical community "expects" the 2% mortality rate of the coronavirus to go up. There is a possibility it could, but it still looks like a much smaller mortality rate than SARS. 
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/30/ezekiel-emanuel-on-coronavirus-americans-need-to-stop-panicking.html
    ZeusAres42
  • xlJ_dolphin_473xlJ_dolphin_473 1712 Pts   -  
    No, there are 216 deaths as of the present. This is predicted to more than double in the coming year. It is very difficult to lie about death without actually dying. But then it is no longer a lie.
  • ZeusAres42ZeusAres42 Emerald Premium Member 2673 Pts   -   edited February 2020
    No, there are 216 deaths as of the present. This is predicted to more than double in the coming year. It is very difficult to lie about death without actually dying. But then it is no longer a lie.



  • piloteer said:
    @Happy_Killbot

    Nobody in the medical community "expects" the 2% mortality rate of the coronavirus to go up. There is a possibility it could, but it still looks like a much smaller mortality rate than SARS. 
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/30/ezekiel-emanuel-on-coronavirus-americans-need-to-stop-panicking.html

    @piloteer many things are possible; very few are actually very probable.
    piloteer



  • piloteerpiloteer 1577 Pts   -  
    piloteer said:
    @Happy_Killbot

    Nobody in the medical community "expects" the 2% mortality rate of the coronavirus to go up. There is a possibility it could, but it still looks like a much smaller mortality rate than SARS. 
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/30/ezekiel-emanuel-on-coronavirus-americans-need-to-stop-panicking.html

    @piloteer many things are possible; very few are actually very probable.
    That is true. It is blatantly false to claim that anybody in the medical community expect the mortality rate of this coronavirus to go up. It is possible it could, just as it's conceivable that this virus could potentially start spreading through the air like measles, but that's not very probable. It's just as easily possible for that mortality rate to go down, so it cannot be expected by anybody either way regardless of whether it's possible.  
  • piloteerpiloteer 1577 Pts   -  
    ALL I'm saying here is if I get coronavirus, I want to have lyme disease also. I like lime with my corona.
    Happy_KillbotZeusAres42
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