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Dreamer quote. I am concerned for you that you are not taking climate change seriously.
Got that right.
Dreamer quote A pregnant woman drown near where I live due to flash flooding from torrential rain.
And such things never happened before? C’mon ma-a-a-ate. Blaming every tragedy or extreme weather event on HIGW is getting a bit old. Drought? Blame global warming. Floods? Blame global warming. Extreme heat? Blame global warming. Extreme cold? With a bit of creativilty, the Alarmists can blame that on global warming too.
Dreamer quote "We now know that the smog that climatologists call ‘aerosols’ – emitted by human activities into the atmosphere – caused localised cooling closest to the areas where most of it originated. Smogs constitute a deadly health hazard"
Oh, for God’s sake! I set you some homework to try and see if you had a functioning brain? You disappointed me. Okay, let’s try it again. I have already explained to you why the climate scientists in the early 1970’s genuinely thought that the world was about to plunge into a new ice age. That was because they knew that the earth warmed and cooled, warmed and cooled, in roughly 1000 year cycles. They knew that every tenth cycle that the earths climate would experience an interglacial mini ice age. They counted back the warming periods since our last inter glacial, and discovered to their horror that our present warming period is the last in the series. They reasonably deduced that the fall in global temperatures from 1930 to 1970 was the beginning of the new interglacial ice age. Got it now? Comprendevous?
Now, if you have a functioning brain, then why do you think that the character who wrote your little “How To Debate Alarmists” website sort of forgot to mention WHY the climate scientists in 1970 thought that an ice age was imminent? C’mon boy! Turn on your critical analysis circuit and think in an impartial way. Do you think that the reason why he did not mention this crucial fact in his little “explanation” about the 1970’s global cooling, was because if he explained why the scientists thought that way, then he would have had to explain about the ten warming periods between interglacial ice ages? Hmmmmmm?
He could not do that, because although he probably thinks that the doe eyed idealists who swallow this global warming gunk are du-mb, they might be smart enough to figure out that there is another explanation for global warming, one demonstrably independent of CO2. And he could not put that germ of an idea in your head.
Dreamer quote The important part is that aerosols caused localized cooling as the planet continued to heat up.
Yeah, don’t think for yourself. Let the Elmer Gantry’s of the world provide you with arguments which you cut and paste. But if you ever bothered to think about them, you would realise that they do not make sense.
Dreamer quote As for the climate myth #1 the climate has changed before. "Rapid climate change, of the type we're causing through our enormous carbon dioxide emissions, falls into the very dangerous camp. That's because the faster the change, the harder it is for nature to cope. We are part of nature so if it goes down, it takes us with it. "
Yeah, yeah. We are all going to die and the earth will turn into Venus unless we allow the unelected and extremely well off unelected, jet setting administrators of our western countries to dictate to the deplorable herd of plebs, what cars we may drive, what size shower heads we may use, what fuel we can use in our pizza ovens, and what we can eat.
Dreamer quote I remember you posting the newspaper clipping but I don't see it anymore.
They are all on page three. Tell ya what, I will post them up for you again. I would love to post up two of the more notorious “climategate” emails ,but unfortunately, I lost that data when my hard drive went bung.
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Anybody who has the most tangential understanding of statistics know that you can not draw conclusions from a small sample. FACT. The earth warms and cools in roughly 1000 year cycles. This FACT is easily verified. FACT. Every 10,000 years the climate of the earth goes into an interglacial, short duration ice age. FACT Our present warming period is the last in the ten year cycle. FACT. Most of the previous 1000 year warming period have been a lot hotter than the one we are now experiencing, although, since it hs not yet reached it's peak, it may, or may not, go higher than previous warming periods. FACT There is no way in hell that you can blame the previous 9 warming periods on human activity. FACT There is even less chance of you blaming every other warming period that occurred regularly in 10,000 year cycles over millions of years on human activity.
But I know you won't check anything. Like any religious zealot, you just want to believe. Explaining climate change to people like you, is like explaining evolution to a deeply religious person who thinks that the universe was created in six days.
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That is a fact but the other fact is that your trying to twist facts to make an argument that doesn't count. Because the other warming periods didn't have bogins doing donuts in there Holdin pickups and burning tons of gas and rubber and the factories that make those cars plus heaps of other polluting things weren't a round then were they. And since no one was a round in those days to take the temperature and the geological data is sketchy and not accurate you cant say that those warming periods were the same as what we have now. So therefore any one including blind Freddie can see that what were doing is screwing up the planet. Why dont you give a boat skipper a slab of 4x to take you out and see the Barrier reef and then tell him that this warming period is the same as the other warming periods when the reef was still there.
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Then you just made a valid statement which makes me hope that you can overcome your brain washing and think rationally?
Dreamer quote. Elaborate, can you explain how this pertains to the discussion?
Oh Dreamer, you just dashed my hope that you know how to think straight. As for your question, and please note that I always try and answer your questions although you never answer mine. Of course I can “elaborate.”
Firstly. You can not draw a conclusion about human activity changing the earth’s climate from a pathetic sample of several decades. Secondly, just in case you did not notice, there is something remiss about your graph? It is a lie. It does not include the 30-40 year cooling period which occurred between 1930-1970, which was why the climate scientists in the early seventies had reason to believe that the earth was beginning to go into a new ice age.
Secondly. I would like to “elaborate” on that point because it is crucially important. I asked you to why the climate scientists got it wrong in the 1970’s in the hope that you could prove that you had an impartial brain. I hoped that you would do some research and discover that what I said was true, instead of just posting sneery one liners, and cut and pasting some self seeking charlatans “explanations”. I am getting a bit worried about you. Time to restore my faith in your IQ levels.
Now, I have posted newspaper clippings from the 70’s which is clear and verifiable evidence that the earth was undergoing a cooling period. Okay so far? Now, where is this cooling period on the graph that you submitted to me? Gee willackers, Margaret, it isn’t there! This is the point where an intelligent person would stop and think about whether he is being lied to. Prove to me that you possess the intelligence you think you have, by asking yourself, “how it is that the Alarmists provided me with a false graph that any person with triple digit IQ can easily disprove?” Do you think the answer might be, that they think that their climate cult believers are so ignorant and stu-pid that they will believe anything they say? And so they will accept any “evidence” the Alarmist leaders submit without scrutiny? Maybe if you are smart enough to realise that you are being played as a sucker by the people you admire, you might start thinking straight?
Dreamer quote When I was religious I never thought God took six days to create the universe. I saw the logical contradiction. If God was all powerful it must have taken a much shorter amount of time. I thought the Earth was created in one second by a Q from Star Trek like entity snapping their fingers.
Okay, do a Jack, or a Barnadot, and submit nonsense instead of a rational argument It just proves to me that you can’t think, and so you need to play stu-pid games. Although, as Jack and Barnadot have realised, I will not put up with that for long. But I think that I have proven one thing to you which makes you uncomfortable? For years the leaders of this climate cult have convinced you that people who believe in HIGW are people of high intellect, while “deniers” are cretins. I think that you are beginning to figure out that those “cretins” know what they are talking about, and that they can not be fobbed off with cut and paste arguments, or with false graphs which they can easily disprove.
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First, 5 million people are not dying a year from climate change. The actual number is 116,000 heat deaths a year. And higher temps reduce cold deaths by 283,000 people annually, so the net effect is more lives are currently being saved from global warming (See https://lomborg.com/heresy-heat-and-cold-deaths, https://financialpost.com/opinion/bjorn-lomborg-climate-change-and-deaths-from-extreme-heat-and-cold)
Even future forecasts by 2100 do not put the number of deaths as high as 5 million a year. Where did you get your data?
Secondly, I can see your zeal, and I believe climate change is real, but much of what is proposed to "solve" the problem is either , unfeasible, or nothing more than wealth redistribution masking as concern for the planet. Sit down for this:
So if the whole world had 0 emissions today, the global temperature would still be 3-5.5 degrees Celsius higher by 2100 with only a 0.278 projected abating in the current forecasts. Now, that is not going to happen. You aren't going to reach 0 emissions today, nor tomorrow, nor in the next 100 years. To do so would be to destroy 3 world economies. Surely, you don't want that and recognize that many developing nations will in the short term need more CO2 energy to raise their economies up.
Many of the proposals for climate change come with astronomical price tags and will change global temperatures by 0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001 degree Celsius by 2100. That is why the Nobel Prize winner for Climate Economics, William Nordhaus, warns that we should not throw away tons of money on things that won't solve the issue. There are many things that can be done - investment in technology is the biggest. It is our greatest hope. But many plans proposed are evil in that they may be zealous to "solve global warming" but fail to accomplish that while harming poor people the most.
Obama's proposed Clean Power Plan would have taken up to 20% of the lowest quintile's take home pay out of their pocket due to increased energy costs and inflation (particularly hard hit would have been the mid-west). That was the finding of over 5 different studies on the effects. Bet you didn't hear that in your class lectures did you?
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Have you ever listened to Deepak Chopra, the guy who throws around fancy terms from quantum physics so that they form incoherent sentences that make no linguistical sense whatsoever, but can confuse someone who does not know the terminology? You are a little bit like him.
"Climate science", in fact, is a weird term in itself. What exactly are we talking about here? When I think about explanatory and predictive models of climate (the ones that the doomsayers allegedly draw their conclusions from), I think about simulating the Earth-like atmospheric environment and letting it evolve with time according to a set of differential equations from hydrodynamics. This is computational physics and not some separate "climate science". There is no such thing as a standard PhD degree in "climate science", and climate is studied by scientists working in mathematics, physics, computer science and adjacent experimental disciplines.
I think that the term "climate science" plays the same role as other related terms such as "social science", "nutritional science", or "data science": they allow the discipline in question to sound scientific while, by putting it in a separate branch, void it from having to satisfy the scientific standards common in the fields needed to study it. For instance, it is incomprehensible to work on modeling of climate systems without having a solid background in physics (specifically hydrodynamics). Yet if you call yourself "climate scientist", then you do not have to have any background in physics: you can just be a "social scientist" (which, as far as I am concerned, means "someone who has taken some arcane courses and looked at some data"), and that allows you to go and speak on intergovernmental panels about the upcoming apocalypse.
The reality is, modern climate models are extremely incomplete and flawed. Even when it comes to the best and most mechanistic models, we do not know even the approximate values of most of the essential parameters, or whether those parameters are static or dynamic. Read any actual paper published in a reputable peer-reviewed journals presenting one of such models, and you will inevitably find that the error bars are enormous and that the authors are extremely careful with their predictions.
That is science. The hogwash you are referring to is not science, and even if some of those articles are written by actual scientists, they are still non-scientific opinion pieces based on either intentional or by necessity misrepresentation of scientific findings.
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Thats right and FACT the earth has warmed 1 degree in the last 200 years and 1.5 degrees in the last 1000 years and this FACT can easily be verified.
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Wrong and you didn't say that it can be verified because guess what it cant and you maid that up.
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Well thats right. Its a bit like racialist zealots and red neck zealots except they believe every thing thats extreme right and then yell in peoples faces that its fact and its fact because they know even though they know nothing much at all but they just want to show off because they wet there beds a lot and there parents used to knock them a round.
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The Lancet Planetary Health
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This is right and a lot of people dont know this but all the animals that get knocked off for food especially cows put more methane into the air than CO2 which is even more damaging. And people think that it comes from there farts but its not. It comes from there breathing which also lets out CO2. So we also have to eat more plants and insects. And okay we just cant change from beef burgers to tofu over night but think about this. We could farm wales because look at the facts. You only need to snuff out 1 whale for every 150 cattle. And all you need to do is kkep them in a pen in the water so your not taking up so much land space. And all the gases from wales get filtered through the water and you get so many buy products from wales that you dont get off cattle.
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Hi Dreamer. Just making declarations and posting cut and paste's is not debating. Let me know when you would like for me to continue your education and deprogamming.?
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You made me cringe again. Let's talk about some of the history of environmental costs including "health" costs. The Obama EPA included soft costs like savings in dental care in its Clean Power Plan. The controversy was that soft costs had never been included before in costs and revenues from programs. To justify the outrageously high cost of the Clean Power Plan for an estimated 0.02 degree Celsius change by 2100 (or in other words a 3 to 5.5 degree Celsius increase in global temperatures) as congressional testimony forced the director to admit too, the EPA abandoned its scientific method and included soft costs for the first time. In the CPP they included how much coal miner's children would save on dental care. (not making this up - please go look on epa website or under the EIMS database). The problem with soft costs is they are estimates that can be pulled right out of someone's MSNBC hole. They are not quantifiable and incredibly subjective - hence why they were never permitted before Obama.
While I don't doubt that there may be health benefits from a cleaner environment, know that the figures you are looking at are essentially junk science, and estimates someone made up to make a political option look more palatable.
If there is a credible climate change plan, it won't need to appeal to subjective costs that can't be verified. In fact, if a plan has such costs included you can be fairly sure, its because the plan can't sell itself on its hard cost data.
So you are willing to take up to 20% of the lowest quintile's take home pay away from them for imagined health care benefits that the researcher can't certify the validity of?
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I think that most of it comes from burning fossil fuels and there is a lot of evidence for that and also the gases that come from cows because we eat to much red meat. If you look at chickens they dont put out any where near the amount of gases wait by wait as cows and we can process them a lot easier and we dont need to eat dairy either because we can eat tofu and have soy milk. So as soon as we stop making cheeze burgers and drive battery cars the world is going to be better off and we will easily brake the targets.
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Like I wrote in my above post, Mr Dreamer. When you are prepared to debate in good faith then let me know? I simply regard you as another Alarmist who can not justify his beliefs, and who struggles against a switched on opponent.
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Bogan I am unsure why the two graphs are different. "Although the global temperature only decreased by approximately 0.1°C"
https://skepticalscience.com/global-cooling-mid-20th-century-advanced.htm
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The .02 estimate is based on the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change modeling tool for the Clean Power Plan. Its an online tool you can Google and use yourself. Its considered the standard and what our Climate Change Agreements use as their basis. There are several videos like the one below where Obama's EPA director is called out on supporting a multi-billion (trillion) dollar plan that would cost millions of jobs, take up to 20% of the lowest quintile's take home pay away from them in increased energy and transportation costs - and anything that uses energy and transportation. Here is but one video of her before Congress.
https://youtu.be/0zPpAcUe2Yc
You can Google other parts of the congressional testimony where she proudly defends the plan because it will reduce cavities in coal miner's children as a reason to push CPP even though it would have only changed the projected increase in global temperatures by .02 degree Celsius by 2100.
Shouldn't we care more about how much such evil plans will harm the poor, especially given that the plan will have negligible impact?
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You know, people who do what you do never cease to amaze me. The Internet is full of self-proclaimed experts who are good at fetching random links supporting their position, but not nearly as good at reading and understanding them, and are absolutely terrible at putting them together and seeing if there is any inconsistency between them.
You provided two plots above showing very different curves for two strongly related variables. All you could say is "I am unsure why the two graphs are different"; it never occurred to you that them being so different completely undermines your argument, that is based on two conflicting assumptions about the data.
You talk about the need to achieve "net zero CO2 emissions" (quite a goal, considering that, every time you take a breath, you emit CO2), yet cannot even figure out the basic data where you draw your conclusions from. You make outrageous claims about "5 million deaths due to climate change", then nonchalantly reduce this estimate by two orders of magnitude having nothing better to say to restore some credibility to your argument than, "I make mistakes sometimes".
World is full of charlatans, and the most annoying ones are those who do not know that they are charlatans.
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If you are just going to reply to my in depth posts with single declarative sentences, then I am wasting my time with you.
But just for the record, I will repeat again the main reason why I think that anthropogenic global warming is a con. The reason why climate scientists around the world predicted a coming ice age was for a good reason. They knew that global temperatures had fallen from 1930 to 1970. Your 'source" claims that this was only a 0.1 degree fall but that sounds like cr-ap to me. That is not really a temperature decline,so i doubt if climate scientists would have been concerned about that. They knew that the earth warmed and cooled in roghtly 1000 year time periods and then after 10 of these warming and cooling periods, the earth went into a short duration ice age.
They counted back the warming periods from our present one and were shocked to discover that our present warming period is the last in the 10,000 year cycle.
Our presnt warming period is called The Modern warming period and it is right on schedule. All of the previous warming periods were warmer that this one. It is a perfectly natural event so get over it. stop allowing educated elites who just want to control your life to con you into thinking that they are the saviours of the world. Over the last 600 million years the graph of global temperatures versus CO2 levels shows that there appears to be no causal link between CO2 and global temperatures.
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The earth warms and cools every thousand or so years. The reason for that has never been explained to me, but as an amateur astronomer I presume that the main reason is cycles of the sun. The sun's output is never constant. It warms and cools in a cyclical way and I presume, with good reason, that the sun that is the primary driver of global temperature. There are about a dozen other factors which affect the earth's temp over millions of years. But the sun is the only factor that I can figure works in thousand year increments.
I do not think that pumping out trillions of tons of CO2 forever is a good idea. And if the human race is thinking about cutting back on CO2 emissions then that is a good idea which I support. But nothing I have heard can convince mem that the human race is suffering from an existential threat because of CO2, and unless we destroy capitalism and become some sort of socialist state with a world government full of overpaid, unelected, and out of touch elites, then we are going to turn into Venus in the next few years.
You have been brainwashed to accept an idea which was propagated first by climate scientists who only wanted to make their obscure science as important as Physics, Chemistry, and Mathematics, as well as getting increased funding. Their little scam succeeded beyond their wildest expectations, because so many other groups of self interested people saw supposedly anthropogenic climate change as a way of increasing their own wealth, power, and prestige. Governments everywhere saw it as a way to frighten their taxpayers into paying increasing amounts of tax. If this is not so, ask yourself "why do governments only fund research into Alarmists and not Skeptics? It is a pretty funny sort of "science" where a scientific question of immense public importance has only one side of the scientific debate funded by governments. And lavishly funded too. Don't give me this cr-ap about a 97% scientific consensus. We know from the climategate scandal that scientific naysayers get the sack. They lose not only their jobs, but their careers as well, and they probably end up flipping burghers in McDonalds for a living.
If you think that you possess an above average intellect, then could you please start using your intellect to think? Intelligent people don't just swim with the tide of public opinion or cowtow to their peers misconceptions as a way of ingratiating themselves, and making themselves popular. Intelligent people cultivate impartial lines of thought and they think critically. There is just too much about anthropogenic climate change which does not makes sense, and which stinks with the odour of government control and personal self interest. The smart Chinese do not give a sh-it about anthropogenic climate change. They know it is all some sort of western mass hysteria which they intend to profit handsomely from. They probably wonder how it is that the white race, which has been so smart in the past, has become hysterical over a perfectly natural, recurring event? They probably think with good reason it is a factor of the old Chinese proverb "third generation no good." If the western world wants to self suicide then that is just fine with the CCP. While the west destroys it's coal fired and nuclear power stations, thereby destroying their own economies, China is building a coal or nuclear power station every two weeks.
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And every one else will ask you again why the global warming is heaps more now than the Midevil period. And every one will tell you again that its because all the red necks and the bogins in there mussel cars doing burn outs. All the red necks could do in those days was rape and pillage because they couldn't do burn outs in there chariots and they didn't have factories all over the place and they didn't have air cons and airosole cans. About the only thing that is the same as those days is that the red necks and bogins are still so dents between the ears that nothing much more than what they want to know ever syncs in.
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https://skepticalscience.com/global-warming-stopped-in-1998.htm
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1. Could you please tell us who conducted this poll, was it a secret ballot, and how it was done?
2. The Climategate emails and the persecution of Professor Peter Ridd of Queensland university clearly showed that any scientist who opposed the prevailing orthodoxy got sacked and not only lost their jobs, they lost their careers.
3. 99.99999% of physicists disagreed with James van Allen idea that radiation belts surrounded the earth. 99.99999% of them were proven wrong.
Dreamer quote Global warming is here now,
I agree, and just like the last 9 in our usual 1000 year cycles of warming and cooling over 10,000 year periods, it is right on schedule.
Dreamer quote caused by humans, and the main driver is co2 from industrial activity.
Nice bit of speculation that nobody can prove. If your only explanation for our present global warming, is industrial activity, could you please explain what industrial activity caused the previous 9 warming cycles in the last 10,000 years? And the 10,000 year cycle before that? And the 10,000 year cycle before that? Add infinitum.
Dreamer quote Most of the heat has gone into the ocean.
The oceans of planet earth hold in solution 20 times the CO2 of our atmosphere . Cold water holds more CO2 than warm water. When our oceans heat up, they release CO2. The previous 9 warming cycles in our usual 1000 year warming and cooling cycles, were warmer than today. If CO2 was such a big deal in global warming, then why didn't the earth turn into Venus previously? CO2 is only a trace gas in our atmosphere. It is almost bugger all. If you double or triple bugger all, it is still bugger all. it is the oceans of the world which hold most of earth's CO2 which is not locked away in carbonaceous rocks like limestone or coal. A person who possesses a brain capable of synapsing would have to ask themselves, that if the oceans hold most of earths CO2, and the earth has warmed previously to much higher temperatures than today, then why was there not a runaway greenhouse effect?
A warming ocean releases a lot of CO2. Which, according to your theory that CO2 causes the earth's temperature to rise, should make the atmosphere and oceans warmer. Which would release more CO2 from the oceans. . Which would cause global temperatures to rise further. . Which would release more CO2 from the oceans. Your brain washed inserted theory that CO2 has much effect on global temps sure looks wonky to me.
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Could you please tell us who conducted this poll, was it a secret ballot, and how it was done?
You know that your twisting the facts and deliberately leaving things out and refusing to answer to the facts. Because you have been told a zillion times all ready that it is proven that the global warming now is mush higher than all the other global warmings and there is heaps of evidence that was shown to you that you still ignore. Just as well bogins and red necks don't get any say in things and never become top politicians because apart from having very little brains the world would be a total mess if they had there way and people ever took them seriously.
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All climate change proposals should have a cost benefit analysis associated with them that specifically mentions the costs and how much it will abate global warming by 2100. There are so many plans that are driven more by socialism than by actually helping the environment. If there were no CO2 emissions by humans on the planet the global temperature would only change .137 degree Celsius by 2100, or in other words it would still go up 3 to 5.5 degree Celsius.
Knowing that temps will rise we should continue to look into research to help eliminate CO2 gas emissions, and ways to mitigate damage.
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In fact, what I am more interested in is despite all the evidence that there are still people that contest this, and it is their reasons, and motivations as to why they continue to do so. I am more interested into the inns and outs of the minds that engage in this behaviour whether they do it intentionally or unintentionally.
I think the key lies in understanding these people as opposed to enforcing extreme policy prescriptions. At least one of the keys.
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