Election 2024: Will Republicans win in a landslide, or just barely win in the congressional election

jack

@just_sayin

G'morning:

Nahh.  We've heard about this red wave before..

https://www.rutgers.edu/news/what-happened-red-wave

Trump will LOSE and the Dems will take the House.

excon

just_sayin

jack said:

@just_sayin

G'morning:

Nahh.  We've heard about this red wave before..

https://www.rutgers.edu/news/what-happened-red-wave

Trump will LOSE and the Dems will take the House.

excon

Why do you think Democrats will win?

jack

just_sayin said:

Why do you think Democrats will win?

Hello again, just:

Two reasons..  Abortion, and the total rejection of Donald Trump.  See what the Germans said about Hitler in 1922:

excon

just_sayin

jack said:

just_sayin said:

Why do you think Democrats will win?

Hello again, just:

Two reasons..  Abortion, and the total rejection of Donald Trump.

excon

I agree with you that abortion and Trump will play heavily into the Democrat party's play book.  We will see a lot of campaign ads from Democrats on abortion and the dangers of Trump.  I don't think you will see many ads from Democrats about other pressing issues such as the economy, inflation, the border, transgenders in sports, parental rights, school choice, or national security.  As important as abortion and Trump Derangement Syndrome are as issues, and I acknowledge that abortion is an issue where more voters would be inclined to vote for Democrats than Republicans, I don't think it will overcome the reality of inflation every person feels.  

jack

just_sayin said:

I don't think you will see many ads from Democrats about other pressing issues such as the economy, inflation

Hello again, just:

I dunno..  The economy is kicking butt right now..  The stock market is at an all time high, GDP is up, corporate profits are up, and both inflation and unemployment are down. 

What's not to like?

https://www.bea.gov/news/glance

Of course, on your favorite channel, the economy is in the toilet.

excon

just_sayin

jack said:

just_sayin said:

I don't think you will see many ads from Democrats about other pressing issues such as the economy, inflation

Hello again, just:

I dunno..  The economy is kicking butt right now..  The stock market is at an all time high, GDP is up, Corporate profits are up, inflation is down, and unemployment is down. 

What's not to like?

https://www.bea.gov/news/glance

Of course, on your favorite channel, the economy is in the toilet.

excon

You got to be kidding to think that people aren't aware of how much Bidenflation has cost them.  

American families have lost $7,400 due to inflation, rate hikes under Biden: Heritage

$7,400 a year more just to maintain the same standard of living one had under Trump.  

Since President Biden took office, inflation has increased 16.6%. (Bureau of Labor Statistics, Accessed 7/12/2023)

• Grocery (food at home) prices have increased 20%. 

• Food away from home prices have increased 18%. 

• Energy prices have increased 38%.

• Prices for fuel oil have increased 45%. 

• Gasoline (all types) prices have increased 52%. 

• Natural gas prices have increased 20.7%. 

• Electricity prices have increased 26%.

• Rental prices for a primary residence have increased 15.6%.

• Prices for used cars and trucks have increased 35%. 

• Prices for new vehicles have increased 20%. 

• Furniture prices have increased 18.8%. 

• Apparel prices have increased 10.8%.

• Airline fares have increased 39%. 

Biden will try to get people to focus on the monthly report, but ignore the overall stats that Bidenflation has decimated the poor in the US.

jack

just_sayin said:

Biden will try to get people to focus on the monthly report, but ignore the overall stats that Bidenflation has decimated the poor in the US.

Hello again, just:

It's true, inflation is bad..  But, the direction it's moving is GOOD. 

From the article I posted earlier, 

Personal income increased $81.6 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in November. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $71.9 billion (0.4 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of personal consumption expenditures (PCE), personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $47.8 billion (0.2 percent) and consumer spending increased $46.7 billion (0.2 percent). Personal saving was $839.8 billion and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.1 percent in November. 

excon

just_sayin

jack said:

just_sayin said:

Biden will try to get people to focus on the monthly report, but ignore the overall stats that Bidenflation has decimated the poor in the US.

Hello again, just:

It's true, inflation is bad..  But, the direction it's moving is GOOD. 

From the article I posted earlier, 

Personal income increased $81.6 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in November. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $71.9 billion (0.4 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of personal consumption expenditures (PCE), personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $47.8 billion (0.2 percent) and consumer spending increased $46.7 billion (0.2 percent). Personal saving was $839.8 billion and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.1 percent in November. 

excon

@Jack,
Unless the economy gets well enough to make up for the $7,400 more that each American has to pay, each year, just to maintain what they had under Trump, I think voters are going to notice.  What was it that that Democrat politician in New York was always screaming?  Something about rent being too high, I think.  

So tell me, why do you think Biden has lost so much of the Black vote?  Is it inflation?  Is it his opposition to educational freedom and wanting to keep Black kids chained to bad schools?  Or do you think it might be that Biden's immigration policies have allowed so much illegal labor that it costs the average Black worker between $1,000 - $2,000 each year in reduced wages?  There is a reason why they are leaving Joe Biden in mass numbers.

Factfinder

just_sayin said:

jack said:

just_sayin said:

Biden will try to get people to focus on the monthly report, but ignore the overall stats that Bidenflation has decimated the poor in the US.

Hello again, just:

It's true, inflation is bad..  But, the direction it's moving is GOOD. 

From the article I posted earlier, 

Personal income increased $81.6 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in November. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $71.9 billion (0.4 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of personal consumption expenditures (PCE), personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $47.8 billion (0.2 percent) and consumer spending increased $46.7 billion (0.2 percent). Personal saving was $839.8 billion and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.1 percent in November. 

excon

@Jack,
Unless the economy gets well enough to make up for the $7,400 more that each American has to pay, each year, just to maintain what they had under Trump, I think voters are going to notice.  What was it that that Democrat politician in New York was always screaming?  Something about rent being too high, I think.  

So tell me, why do you think Biden has lost so much of the Black vote?  Is it inflation?  Is it his opposition to educational freedom and wanting to keep Black kids chained to bad schools?  Or do you think it might be that Biden's immigration policies have allowed so much illegal labor that it costs the average Black worker between $1,000 - $2,000 each year in reduced wages?  There is a reason why they are leaving Joe Biden in mass numbers.

Never under estimate the lefts ability to play on people's ignorance. Manipulation using stats that tell only part of the story is one of the things they're best at. They will never admit Biden first intentionally drove up inflation causing hardships unimaginable in our society before he came. Just to appease the fringe elements of his party. They still have enough upper middleclass disenfranchised liberals who will vote along party lines despite the destruction it causes. 

Openminded

@just_sayin

I think the majority of Americans understand the economy, gas prices, are complex issues and not a Joe Biden fault. I believe by November most Americans will be so done with Trump and the chaos that inherently follows him. Abortion is huge, yes. The Border will be a problem for Biden, but I believe the administration is working on this diligently. It´s just it takes longer when it´s done humanely. But the other issues you mention are just made up, amorphous problems that FOX and right-wing scare mongering does do their viewers like transgenders in sports (really? is this a huge problem?), parental rights (Really? when did this become a problem?) school choice (Really? a huge problem?). You forgot drag queen readings.

The bottom line: People are simply exhausted. Now there may still be some Trump die hards that simply love entertainment, they thrive on chaos, and chose ignorance over knowledge, but for the most part they´re done with the chaos. Not to mention the 91 indictments against him.

MichaelElpers

@Openminded

When immigration is done humanely?

He hasnt even gotten close to stop the influx of illegal immigrants coming in. Its really pretty easy to do that. Build a wall and militarize the border. 

Factfinder

Openminded said:

@just_sayin

I think the majority of Americans understand the economy, gas prices, are complex issues and not a Joe Biden fault. I believe by November most Americans will be so done with Trump and the chaos that inherently follows him. Abortion is huge, yes. The Border will be a problem for Biden, but I believe the administration is working on this diligently. It´s just it takes longer when it´s done humanely. But the other issues you mention are just made up, amorphous problems that FOX and right-wing scare mongering does do their viewers like transgenders in sports (really? is this a huge problem?), parental rights (Really? when did this become a problem?) school choice (Really? a huge problem?). You forgot drag queen readings.

The bottom line: People are simply exhausted. Now there may still be some Trump die hards that simply love entertainment, they thrive on chaos, and chose ignorance over knowledge, but for the most part they´re done with the chaos. Not to mention the 91 indictments against him.

Leftist compassion never seizes to amaze. gish gallop

just_sayin

Openminded said:

@just_sayin

I think the majority of Americans understand the economy, gas prices, are complex issues and not a Joe Biden fault. I believe by November most Americans will be so done with Trump and the chaos that inherently follows him. Abortion is huge, yes. The Border will be a problem for Biden, but I believe the administration is working on this diligently. It´s just it takes longer when it´s done humanely. But the other issues you mention are just made up, amorphous problems that FOX and right-wing scare mongering does do their viewers like transgenders in sports (really? is this a huge problem?), parental rights (Really? when did this become a problem?) school choice (Really? a huge problem?). You forgot drag queen readings.

The bottom line: People are simply exhausted. Now there may still be some Trump die hards that simply love entertainment, they thrive on chaos, and chose ignorance over knowledge, but for the most part they´re done with the chaos. Not to mention the 91 indictments against him.

OMG.  Joe Biden specifically pushed through the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) .  This massive spending caused a huge spike in inflation within months of its passage.  How can any honest and just person deny this?  

People know that Bidenflation is to blame for their higher rent, for Big Mac meals costing $18 in Connecticut, for higher gas prices, for higher energy prices, for higher food prices.  And come election day, people get to let Democrats know just how much they noticed  the fact that it costs them $7,400 more a year just to have the same standard of living they had under Trump.

jack

just_sayin said:

OMG.  Joe Biden specifically pushed through the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) .  This massive spending caused a huge spike in inflation within months of its passage.  How can any honest and just person deny this? 

Hello again, j:

I'm honest and just.  We just have a different opinion..  

When a government spends massive amounts of money, it takes about 18 months to work its way through the economy and show up in higher prices.  Therefore, I say our inflation rate is a direct result of the massive amounts of money spent on Covid relief.  And, that happened under Trump.

Besides, if Trump wins, he's gonna RAISE your taxes when he puts his promised tariffs (taxes on you and me) on the Chinese.  Du*de!

excon

jack

just_sayin said:  And come election day, people get to let Democrats know just how much they noticed  the fact that it costs them $7,400 more a year just to have the same standard of living they had under Trump.

Hello again, j:

Did you hear what Republican Chip Roy said about his caucus???  It ain't good.  Read 'em, and weep...

GOP Congressman Chip Roy Declares the GOP Is Useless, in Floor Speech Democrats Are Probably Turning Into a 2024 Ad Right Now

“I want my Republican colleagues to give me one thing—one—that I can go campaign on and say we did. One!”

Roy said. “When are we going to do what we said we would do?” Taking aim expressly at his GOP colleagues, Roy added: “For the life of me, I do not understand how you can go to the trouble of campaigning, raising money, going to events, talking to people, coming to this town as a member of a party who allegedly stands for something…and then do nothing about it. One thing: I want my Republican colleagues to give me one thing—one—that I can go campaign on and say we did. One!” Then he dared any Republicans in the room to come to the floor and “explain to me one material, meaningful, significant thing the Republican majority has done.”

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2023/11/chip-roy-republicans-have-accomplished-nothing

excon

Openminded

Argument Topic: Build a wall and militarize the border.

@MichaelElpers

Well looky here. We have a MIGHT MAKES RIGHT man.
You´ve proven that to solve complex problems that involve saving the lives of human beings can only be solved by cruelly cutting people off and weaponizing the border control. Facism much?

MichaelElpers

@Openminded

No, we have control the border curbs illegal immigration.

How exactly do you suppose we humanely solve how to handle illegal immigrants currently here when still have millions pouring in?  Every illegal immigrant coming in hurts the prospect of legal immigration which I wholey support.

You think enforicing a border is facist?  What do you think a border is?  Is having a home with a door also facist?
This goes back to my point in the gish gallop thread.  You like to label arguments to avoid having to engage them.

Heres an idea, propose a solution that we can discuss.  Biden is supposedly working so hard on it that we have record numbers coming in.

https://homeland.house.gov/2023/10/26/factsheet-final-fy23-numbers-show-worst-year-at-americas-borders-ever/

Factfinder

@Openminded

Did you lock your front and back doors before going to bed last night? If so why do such a cruel fascist thing by cutting people off?

just_sayin

Openminded said:

@MichaelElpers

Well looky here. We have a MIGHT MAKES RIGHT man.
You´ve proven that to solve complex problems that involve saving the lives of human beings can only be solved by cruelly cutting people off and weaponizing the border control. Facism much?

Here's a quote for you:

“I voted for a fence, I voted, unlike most Democrats — and some of you won’t like it — I voted for 700 miles of fence,...But, let me tell you, we can build a fence 40 stories high, unless you change the dynamic in Mexico and — and you will not like this, and — punish American employers who knowingly violate the law when, in fact, they hire illegals. Unless you do those two things, all the rest is window dressing.”
“Now, I know I’m not supposed to say it that bluntly, but they’re the facts, they’re the facts,...And so everything else we do is in between here. Everything else we do is at the margins. And the reason why I add that parenthetically, why I believe the fence is needed, does not have anything to do with immigration as much as drugs. And let me tell you something, folks, people are driving across that border with tons, tons, hear me, tons of everything from byproducts for methamphetamine to cocaine to heroin and it’s all coming up through corrupt Mexico.”

Guess who said they voted for the border fence, and wants to punish American employers who hire illegal labor, and who recognizes that an open border leads to higher drug rates?  That was - Joe Biden 

Leftists have convinced Joe Biden that illegal labor is a good thing.  So we have a porous border where there the focus is not on border security.  Biden claims the border is secure while more people cross it illegally than at any other time in history.

So tell me, was Joe Biden wrong about the border back then, or is he lying today about the security of the border?  

Bogan

If polling has any validity at all (it has proven to be way off the mark in Australian elections), then Trump will win in a Reagan like landslide.     I have always found it strange that we see a recurring pattern in western society.    The Left gets into power and buggers everything up, so they get chucked out of office, usually in a landslide by a fed up electorate.   The "Conservatives" get back into power and sort everything out again.     With everything now functioning again, too many electors once again fall for he empty promises of socialism, and the country goes down the gurgler again.   Repeat add infinitum.  .

John_C_87

Republicans will win in a land slide, and it is not because people who are said to be democrat won't be elected, the landslide will be due to only the dissolving of the political bands which bind the political governing process. Everyone in American who stands for the democratic process is a republican and even the republicans who do not stand for the democratic process are still republican. People who are in politics and people who are not in politics are still republican this only leaves religous ties, buiness ties, united states constitutional right ties, and finally criminal ties both of a united state and those which are not in a united state constitutional tie.  Breaking of political ties does not need to be about inserection or civil war it is something that can be proven before a court of law or the House as a as whole truth.

Openminded

Argument Topic: Guess who said they voted for the border fence, and wants to punish American employers who hire illegal labor, and who recognizes that an open border leads to higher drug rates? That was - Joe Biden

@just_sayin

Guess who said they voted for the border fence, and wants to punish American employers who hire illegal labor, and who recognizes that an open border leads to higher drug rates?  That was - Joe Biden 

Yes, that was Biden in 2007 - 17 years ago. Migration has increased obviously since then and the complexities have ballooned. Politics and government has also become more complex, messy and partisan. Yes Biden did propose a fence - a partial fence at the most porous openings. He also suggested more money for border patrol. He also did say he thought wealthy Americans were in fact prospering off of illegal immigrants, which is true. Your point? Again, this was 17 years ago and it´s hard to compare the border problem then to the complexities of today´s border problem. Were your views on certain issues the exact same as they are now 17 years later?

Leftists have convinced Joe Biden that illegal labor is a good thing.

I don´t believe they´ve convinced Biden of this. Although admittedly, the progressive democrats are a pain in the a$$ just as the tea party and freedom caucus is on the right.  Illegal labor at one time was not as nefarious as the right extremists like to tout ad nauseam on Fox News. We are woefully underrepresented in many jobs in the US now as a result of low migration and post covid. And I don´t believe they´re asserting that ILLEGAL labor is a good thing - documented immigrants are a good thing. They are desperately trying to expedite the process of work permits being provided to asylum seekers (who entered the US through an official port of entry) as part of the border deal. As it is now, they have to wait 150 days for these work permits. Expedition of these permits is in the works. Cities need workers to fill jobs that are not being filled. Let´s see just how much republicans want to help and fix the issue. 

So we have a porous border where there the focus is not on border security.  Biden claims the border is secure while more people cross it illegally than at any other time in history.

Firstly, yes, the border is a serious issue, but if you´re an avid FOX news watcher, you would think that is our only problem and migrants are what ails America. Fox loves to fear monger because to sensationalize is to make them rich. Ad nauseam they talk about the ¨Illegals¨ - a term that I find particularly offensive and cruel. The hate and talk about the ¨illegals¨ and ¨the gotaways¨ is simply disgusting, divisive, sensationalizing and scapegoating. This is why the left and right cannot work together. Both are extreme views that keep dividing us.

Because the Biden administration is trying to work in a bipartisan way, does not mean they are not doing anything. The Biden Administration is proposing 25B to go toward border security and the CBP.  This money would go toward hiring additional Border Patrol agents, border technology, combating fentanyl trafficking, hiring more processing assistants at CBP and ICE, funding for asylum processing, and a contingency fund to address future immigration surges and funding for refugee services.

And yes, to do this in a humane way is important. So you may say that Trump achieved this on his own. How? Firstly, because of the increasing unrest and instability of countries, the problem just was not as bad as it is now. What he did to fix the problem was a no brainer for a cruel and lazy-minded person. At the border, he had babies and young children taken from their parents he deemed automatically ¨illegal¨as a desperate attempt to deter migration and to fulfill a promise. Yes, because of Trump´s Zero Tolerance Policy, 5000 children were taken from migrant parents. Over 1,000 still remain in the US as their migrant parents were sent back to their countries. This was cruel and notably reckless as vague and incomplete records were kept of the childrens´ names. Because of the Biden administration´s Family Reunification Task Force, they were able to unite most of the children with their parents but now may need to rely on DNA to figure out who the remaining children are to reunite them with their parents. THATŚ what Biden has been working on (among several Trump errors that needed to be fixed). Cleaning up after Captain Chaos and his cruelty has taken time from the Biden administration.

https://news.northwestern.edu/stories/2023/10/why-are-so-many-migrant-families-still-separated-chaos-in-the-data/

Biden will not bow down to the belligerence and power-hungry republican party who won´t work with Biden unless they get everything they want. That includes the continuation of building a wall that would cost billions and not fix the issue. They´re simply unreasonable to work with. That is evidenced by the high and quick turnover of speakers. The republicans are a fractured party.

So tell me, was Joe Biden wrong about the border back then, or is he lying today about the security of the border?  

Biden said that 17 years ago. It´s not credible to compare this issue to 2007.

Does Biden have faults? YES. Is he without his baggage? NO. But he´s humane and decent. And that sure beats the he LL out of a sick narcissist who was cruel enough to steal babies from their parents so he could fulfill a promise and remain in power. And sure, you can think that your boy, Trump, is doing it because he loves Americans. But surely, surely, you can see how his cruelty wreaks havoc on humanity.

just_sayin

@Openminded
Hey,  I answered your post in the other thread where you pasted this thread.  The real issue of the 2024 election will be Bidenflation.

Bidenflation is crushing poor people whose rent has significantly increased, their gas prices are up, their electricity bills are through the roof, they can't afford food and they see Biden telling them they will have to buy EV cars at $10,000 more than what they can afford.  

Democrats will try and demonize Trump in an attempt to get people to forget the pain and suffering that Biden inflicted on them.  But the reality is that getting an STD is more popular than Joe Biden.

Factfinder

jack said:

just_sayin said:

I don't think you will see many ads from Democrats about other pressing issues such as the economy, inflation

Hello again, just:

I dunno..  The economy is kicking butt right now..  The stock market is at an all time high, GDP is up, corporate profits are up, and both inflation and unemployment are down. 

What's not to like?

https://www.bea.gov/news/glance

Of course, on your favorite channel, the economy is in the toilet.

excon

But of course per liberal play book you purposely chose stats and graphs telling only part of the story. What do you think you can gain when you know you're attempting to deceive? Even if you had competence enough to pull it off you'd still know you're wrong. Biden intentionally drove up prices to appease the bar maid and a couple other losers in congress. To the tune of over a 17% price hike. Even when he was called out on it and people told him you're causing a baby formula shortage. He reacted as if 'how could I have known' and doubled down on his personal vendetta; choosing dirty oil from his dictator friends instead of apologizing for pulling the rug out from American energy companies. A little thing called a pipeline. His puppet masters are more important to him than American children. This inadvertent bump in the economy falls far short of the 17% price hikes he caused. What was he said, something like we need to force americans off fossil fuels,  at the time? So what, maybe 3% recovery rate makes up for his malicious actions in 2021? 

https://waysandmeans.house.gov/chairman-smith-president-bidens-inflation-crisis-continues-to-rob-the-wallets-of-working-families/

MayCaesar

If election outcomes were this predictable, there would be no point in them. Only one top candidate would run, plus a couple of people who just want to advertise themselves. Everyone else would bail out, rather than spending millions and millions on the campaign - and the results of most elections would not be so incredibly close.

Just like on the market prices are adjusted to account for expected numbers of purchases, in elections platforms are adjusted respectively - see the Median Voter Theorem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Median_voter_theorem. If the top Democrat runner sees that with the current platform he stands no chance of getting elected, he will adjust the platform so as to become more attractive to the swing voters.

The dominant theme of this election seems to be people's frustration with Biden administration's unending economical disasters and the "woke" stuff getting out of control. It is reasonable therefore for the top Democrat runner to make adjustments (Clinton-like), such as "Regulations are good and all, but Biden went too far; we need to free up the economy a little and run budget surplus for a while", and "Equity and diversity are important, but we cannot force them on people, and we cannot violate their free speech. These things should not be taught at schools, and should only be offered at universities as electives". And who wins the election then is everybody's guess.

Factfinder

 Don't forget the lefts ability to vote along strict party lines against their own best interest @jack. That may be why they win.

just_sayin

Real Clear Politics says 67% of the country believes Joe Inflation has the country on the wrong direction.  The only hope for Democrats is if they can get people to forget how much they are spending for things.

Bogan

@just_sayin ;    And 32% claim that Biden "is doing a good job."       Which just goes to show how continued drug abuse can damage the mind.     Here in Australia, the most liberal electorate we have is the almost exclusively homosexual suburb of Darlinghurst, Sydney, where according to sewerage drug testing, has the highest level of cocaine abuse in the country.   If your looking for left wing hypocrisy, there it is, right there.     Australia's most liberal suburb where virtue signaling is the prevailing fashion, keep the narcotrafficantes and their death squads in business.  

Factfinder

Bogan said:

@just_sayin ;    And 32% claim that Biden "is doing a good job."       Which just goes to show how continued drug abuse can damage the mind.     Here in Australia, the most liberal electorate we have is the almost exclusively homosexual suburb of Darlinghurst, Sydney, where according to sewerage drug testing, has the highest level of cocaine abuse in the country.   If your looking for left wing hypocrisy, there it is, right there.     Australia's most liberal suburb where virtue signaling is the prevailing fashion, keep the narcotrafficantes and their death squads in business.  

just_sayin said:

Real Clear Politics says 67% of the country believes Joe Inflation has the country on the wrong direction.  The only hope for Democrats is if they can get people to forget how much they are spending for things.

One thing we must all keep in mind. He who has perfected the art of dangling a carrot, knows and understands all too well the power of the carrot. Those with the yoke of socialism around their necks will continue to misrepresent facts and statistics. Doesn't matter their hundred percent failure rate, they'll keep believing in a free lunch. All they can do is salivate over that carrot. It's a mental condition.