Unless you live under a rock or don't trade stocks for some reason, you will be aware that the Dow Jones industrial average has recently suffered it's largest single day drop in US history. This drop seems to have been triggered due to fears over the Covid-19 or Corona virus which has spread throughout much of mainland China and is currently spreading through the US, Europe and several other countries.
The Dow has reached record highs in 2019 and early 2020, however we are overdue for a market correction. Typically we see a market recession every 8-15 years, and larger depressions every 100 years or so. Many considered the 2008 crash to be a considerable depression. Since then the banks which caused the crash have been bailed out multiple times, instead of being allowed to be put out of business as the free market would normally dictate. Should it be discovered that these institutions have engaged in any kind of irresponsible trading or financial practice, then these assets (which have no real tangible value) which have been refinanced with American tax dollars could be brought down, taking everything else with them.
There are other very real reasons that a market crash followed by a global depression could occur. A slow down in trade between China and the US could be a major trigger. If the US starts to import less from China due to Corona virus fears, then that means that businesses that depend on those imports to make a profit will not be able to do business, resulting in an overall slowdown of trade. If individuals start selling off market assets to try and make up the difference, this would cause a major drop in price, because these assets are not worth as much as they are traded for in the stock market, having largely inflated or "invented" value, ultimately triggering a market correction.
However, despite all of this, the market might still stabilize as a result of Covid-19 being little more than a nuisance, and the market will stabilize as a result of the virus being contained or not as bad as originally anticipated. If this is the case, then prices may rise back to what they were prior to the recent drop.
Will the Stock market crash due to fears over Covid-19?
At some point in the distant past, the universe went through a phase of cosmic inflation,
Stars formed, planets coalesced, and on at least one of them life took root.
Through a long process of evolution this life developed into the human race.
Humans conquered fire, built complex societies and advanced technology .
All of that so we can argue about nothing.
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One of the biggest mistakes people make when stock-trading is trying to "predict" the market. While such an approach may get you some positive results, in the long run it is a losing strategy. All attempts to model market behavior have failed miserably, and unless you are using top-notch neural networks coupled with automatic news analyser running on a supercomputer, you might as well be flipping a coin and analysing the future based on what you get.
The correct strategy giving you small, but steady gains seems to be to just follow a set of rules that empirically have been proven to work more often than not. Do not think about what the market is likely to do; look at patterns and the results they give you. Many patterns that have worked for people well do not actually seem to have an easy interpretation in terms of the market behavior; they just work and that is it.
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The S&P 500 fell by 7.7%, blowing through the first circuit-breaker level that it tripped minutes after trading opened for the day. The S&P 500 is on pace for its worst day since December, 2008, when stocks fell by just over 9%.
The Nasdaq was down "only" 6.7%....
And it's not just the "fear" of the virus that causes problems, the virus in itself is a big problem, China is basically "on hold" at the moment, the productivity is down (although it seems to be restarting now, how fast will it get back to full throttle is another thing), affecting the world's supply of cheap sh*t... It will take a few weeks or even months before things return to normal, by then many will have suffered economically from this, business will close... At least, those who depend too much on China's manufacturing infrastructures and cheap labor...
The positive thing about it, maybe that it clearly demonstrates how fragile it is to depend on other countries to manufacture most of our goods...
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I have to disagree that the stock market is completely unpredictable, because it is still based on physical aspects of the market which are themselves going to exist in response to reality. For example if China shuts down then trade value between the US and China will go down, and markets that rely on those imports will suffer. That is perfectly predictable, what isn't predictable is when and where these types of events will occur.
For the above reason specifically, I sold most of my stocks at the end of January, specifically because it looked like we were going to see a turn that didn't actually happen until about three weeks later, although I can't say I regret doing what I did
You can also predict long term trends on average, for example just after a recession if you buy a lot of stock it will almost definitely go up, and if you buy when there hasn't been a recession in a long time, it will go down. The index has outperformed every stock on average, and almost always outperforms any actively managed accounts, which is one of the main reasons I primarily trade in the index.
The other way that you can predict stock rises is to actively look for new companies to invest in, although this requires a lot of work and research. If you find something good though, it can be very much worth it in the long run. This is different from trading on the stock market though. If you invest in enough companies, or just get lucky, then you will make gains that are anything but slow and steady using methods that are empirically shown to work.
Stars formed, planets coalesced, and on at least one of them life took root.
Through a long process of evolution this life developed into the human race.
Humans conquered fire, built complex societies and advanced technology .
All of that so we can argue about nothing.
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  Entity Sentiment Detection: percent market crash    debate   bit   COVID-19 worries  
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  Entity Sentiment Detection: biggest market crash    Black Monday      
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How does you vilifying Islam in other threads and claiming that all Muslims are going to have a terrible fate in the afterlife go along with you posting a picture of Trump befriending the leader of the most influential Islamic theocracy in the world with praise?
I mean, to me there is nothing wrong here, but I wonder how you reconcile all those things in your mind.
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So negotiating with the servants of satan is a good thing now? Interesting take on the Bible.
So what will you do if the "coming nuclear war" never actually comes? Will you eat your words, or maybe your book, with a fine ketchup topping?
I am actually on Israel's side; it is the only more or less civilised state on the Middle East as far as I am concerned. But I am a villain now because I am atheist? For that matter, people of Israel do not even follow the same religion as you; they follow Judaism, and their holy book is Torah. Why are you so concerned with the fate of heretics suddenly?
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There was also the largest market gain in US history.
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That was DT words, which aren't very reliable.
However, there was a market gain. However, the increase was minuscule compared to the crashes that occurred before and after.
Although your point was valid, it was by far, not the most significant gain.
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*****Negociating with the servants of Satan within the Realm of Time is mandatory when the lives of 320-million are at stake
Right and he does that by signing a 390 billion arms deal with Saudi hows that work buddy?
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Or are you trying to argue that despite the recent recession (which IMHO is only just getting started) the Stock market has been overall better under Trump?
Stars formed, planets coalesced, and on at least one of them life took root.
Through a long process of evolution this life developed into the human race.
Humans conquered fire, built complex societies and advanced technology .
All of that so we can argue about nothing.
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I'm saying that the market scare isn't nearly as bad as people are making it out to be.
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Make no mistake, before all is said and done this will almost definitely be one of the worst market crashes in US history, but recovery should be relatively quick should the damage be limited. Already the government is taking the steps necessary to limit the economic fallout and control the damage. Businesses will close their doors and people will be out of work for months all across the world. Global trade will slow to a minimum, as xenophobia and isolationist policies will limit the return. The overall standard of living will decrease, and people will move to accept larger more expanded government. The US federal debt will rise sharply. The rich will grow richer, and the poor will grow poorer.
What I intend to address with this debate, is if my assumption that recovery should be quick because of steps taken to limit the damage and the virus being little more than a temporary inconvenience, or if that assumption is misplaced for some unforeseen reason such as the US federal debt being so high that it doesn't warrant taking out new federal loans to pay for stimulus programs.
Stars formed, planets coalesced, and on at least one of them life took root.
Through a long process of evolution this life developed into the human race.
Humans conquered fire, built complex societies and advanced technology .
All of that so we can argue about nothing.
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  Entity Sentiment Detection: Global trade    overall standard of living   worst market crashes   US history  
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A vaccine isn't going to be ready for human use for at least a year (if it is less than that I wouldn't want it anyways), and as long as people are self-quarantining the way they are, then we should expect a very "slow burn" on the spread, that is to say the virus should be spread through each population much slower than we might normally predict, basically meaning it never goes away. This means that the economy is probably going to be in disorder for a long time unless people brighten up and sacrifice I mean protect the elderly who are most at risk then go on to get sick and get over it.
Just out of curiosity, why do you think the entertainment industry will suffer? I feel like if people are staying home movies and especially streaming services will do very well.
Stars formed, planets coalesced, and on at least one of them life took root.
Through a long process of evolution this life developed into the human race.
Humans conquered fire, built complex societies and advanced technology .
All of that so we can argue about nothing.
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That is months of people staying at home and trying their best to avoid public places. That means less buying of products, less going out to eat, and less spending in general. 70% of the US economy is just consumer products. Even just seeing a 1% decrease would be an economic disaster, but I think it is reasonable that we will see much more than that.
I am not arguing that the economy is going to settle out at a new low or anything ridiculous like that, I just don't see how this is going to be resolved without the US taking on massive amounts of debt that will burden our nation for decades. That is what we should really be talking about here.
Thank you for clarifying what you meant about the entertainment industry suffering.
Stars formed, planets coalesced, and on at least one of them life took root.
Through a long process of evolution this life developed into the human race.
Humans conquered fire, built complex societies and advanced technology .
All of that so we can argue about nothing.
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  Entity Sentiment Detection: economic disaster    US economy   rapid production of a vaccine   SARS outbreak  
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